Almost 4 years ago, the average cost for a hockey card collector to buy Upper Deck's Flagship Series 1 or 2 hobby boxes would have cost you around $75 per box. It was an excellent price for collectors to find the rookie young guns of their favorite players. It also allowed new collectors to enter the hockey card market without having to invest a lot of money.
In addition to their flagship products, Upper Deck also produces a number of higher-end products, like SP Authentic and The Cup. These boxes 4 years ago would cost you $150 to $400, respectively. This provided the card collector with an even rarer rookie card, possibly even autographed or with a piece of jersey or a patch, that was limited to just 50, 99 or 249 cards in total.
But the times they are a changing. Prices on hockey cards are skyrocketing. Based on the chart below, with inflation increasing at 4% per year, you would expect nominal price increases for these products ranging from $91 for Upper Deck Series 1 or 2, to $487 for a box of The Cup.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Proj. 2024 | |
UD Series 1 or 2 | $75 | $78 | $81 | $84 | $88 | $91 |
SP Authentic | $150 | $156 | $162 | $169 | $175 | $182 |
The Cup | $400 | $416 | $433 | $450 | $468 | $487 |
Ah, but that is not the case. We have some new variables to account for, namely Connor Bedard. Bedard is the next hockey superstar in the making. He was drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2023 as the number 1 pick. In addition to Bedard, there are a lot of baseball, football, and basketball collectors who are suddenly looking to get into hockey cards given all of the Bedard hype. Finally, you have everyone who got back into collecting, and those that just started during COVID-19. This has created a demand never seen before, and retailers, and other sellers, are looking to capitalize on the uniformed consumer.
So the market is bigger. Got it. Demand is higher. Got it. But what about supply?
As you can imagine, the excitement around Connor Bedard is quite high. Bedard is considered a potential superstar, the caliber of a Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, or Connor McDavid. These types of players are rare. So, what does Bedard mean for the card market? In a word - opportunity.
For those of you who might not know, Upper Deck has an elite group of 25 sports card dealers in the United States and Canada called Diamond Dealers. These Diamond Dealers are the one who are leveraging this opportunity and are not wasting any time driving the price of Connor Bedard Upper Deck products sky high.
Try a simple Google search to see what I mean, 2023-24 Upper Deck Series 2 Hobby Box. You will find pricing around $300/box on average. This represents a 400% increase from prices 4 years ago! It even represents a 130% increase over 2023-24 Upper Deck Series 1 Hobby Box pricing. Wow!
What can you do? We recommend you BE PATIENT! Just like when a new stock gets released on an initial public offer, prices go all over the place. The same thing applies here. Prices will fluctuate massively, especially as soon as Upper Deck Series 2 is released. It will be a mad rush. We predict more Connor Bedard Young Guns will be printed this year than were ever printed for McDavid and, most certainly, Ovechkin and Crosby. Take a look at this combined graded data for Crosby, Ovechkin and McDavid from December 2022
McDavid | Crosby | Ovechkin | ||||
Grade | PSA | BGS | PSA | BGS | PSA | BGS |
9 | 1,488 | 1,411 | 484 | 828 | 899 | 908 |
9.5 | 7,573 | 2,280 | 1,897 | |||
10 | 2,423 | 505 | 930 | 138 | 54 | |
Pristine 10 | 35 | 2 | 1 | |||
Totals | 13,435 | 4,662 | 4,838 |
As you can see here, roughly 4,600-4,800 graded Crosby and Ovechkin Young Guns have a mint 9 Grade or higher. Now, look at the McDavid. MaDavid's rookie year is similar to what we're experience with Bedard - there was a lot of hype then too. They produced a lot more McDavid Young Guns, 282% more are graded 9 or higher. Using a similar percentage, say a 200% increase to McDavid to forecast how many more Bedard Young Guns there will be. We're talking over 25,000 will eventually be graded 9 or higher. With a $300 price per box, that begs the question, what will the market be like when so many people have the same card they're trying to sell?
So be patient. Wait for things to settle down. Don't get caught in the brouhaha when Bedard's Young Gun is first released. Also, remember that the off-season is a prime time for purchasing hockey cards. Good luck!